Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2253 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2253 PHL 10:30 → CMH 12:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 320 PHL 19:07 → CMH 20:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2253 American	PHL 10:30	CMH 12:12	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5640 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:21	CMH 10:10	12%	4%	2.2%	88%
AA 3241 American Flight history →	PHL 14:20	CMH 16:02	16%	6%	0.8%	84%
AA 2592 American	PHL 16:35	CMH 18:25	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 320 American	PHL 19:07	CMH 20:50	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON