tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 5064 at 19:39, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 19:39 DAY 21:21 19% 9% 3.2% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 5h 15m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763 6h 59m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50DL 3088 5h 48m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA 6h 48m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:39 → CLT 12:21AA 847 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 15:59 → DAY 17:28AA 5321 · flown by PSA 6h 49m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:38 → DCA 16:44AA 5363 · flown by PSA 2h 34m Washington DCA 19:18 → DAY 20:52AA 5131 · flown by PSA 5h 14m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → DAY 11:04UA 4594 · flown by GoJet 5h 04m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:09AA 3326 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:09 → DAY 17:34AA 5517 · flown by PSA 6h 50m 86% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:11 → ORD 20:33UA 2665 47m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet 4h 38m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON