tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4640 at 19:41 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4640 Republic PHL 19:41 DCA 20:55 19% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 5363 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 15:38 DCA 16:44 32% 11% 1.8% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 12m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 1h 35m Charlotte CLT 09:28 → DCA 11:13AA 3043 5h 13m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 22m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 2h 12m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 18m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → DCA 12:06UA 202 6h 06m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic 1h 45m Boston BOS 09:15 → DCA 11:07DL 5693 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:44 → BUF 10:17AA 5925 · flown by Piedmont 1h 27m Buffalo BUF 11:44 → DCA 13:26AA 4647 · flown by Republic 4h 42m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 1h 26m Chicago ORD 10:36 → DCA 13:45AA 1200 6h 03m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 17:31 → BOS 18:58AA 1147 58m Boston BOS 19:56 → DCA 21:54AA 1004 4h 23m 67% 46%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:21 → BOS 16:47AA 3073 1h 03m Boston BOS 17:50 → DCA 19:53AA 1421 4h 32m 70% 45%
JetBlueDetails → PHL 15:52 → BOS 17:16B6 1860 48m Boston BOS 18:04 → DCA 19:58B6 2255 4h 06m 46% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON