Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1581 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1581 PHL 05:21 → DEN 07:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2700 PHL 17:16 → DEN 19:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1581 Southwest	PHL 05:21	DEN 07:25	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	11%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 1423 United	PHL 08:07	DEN 10:22	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2505 Southwest	PHL 12:36	DEN 14:39	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1313 American Flight history →	PHL 09:23	DEN 11:30	15%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 2082 American	PHL 11:24	DEN 13:28	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:25	22%	7%	0.6%	60%
AA 2878 American	PHL 20:06	DEN 22:10	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 3158 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	DEN 19:45	29%	6%	0.7%	64%
WN 2700 Southwest	PHL 17:16	DEN 19:19	30%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 37m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	5h 59m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	5h 54m	91%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON