Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1751 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1751 PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2533 PHL 17:46 → DFW 20:11 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1751 American Flight history →	PHL 05:01	DFW 07:25	9%	3%	1.1%	92%
AA 583 American Flight history →	PHL 07:01	DFW 09:25	11%	4%	1.4%	90%
AA 3326 American Flight history →	PHL 10:44	DFW 13:09	14%	5%	0.8%	76%
AA 3307 American	PHL 08:22	DFW 10:46	14%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	15%	6%	0.8%	73%
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:56	DFW 08:24	19%	6%	1.7%	73%
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	20%	7%	0.9%	68%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	21%	7%	0.9%	69%
AA 1115 American Flight history →	PHL 20:46	DFW 23:10	22%	7%	0.9%	69%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	PHL 17:46	DFW 20:11	27%	7%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON