Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1540 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1540 PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OH 5367 PHL 17:05 → DTW 18:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1540 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:10	DTW 07:48	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
YX 4392 Republic	PHL 10:33	DTW 12:26	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2968 Delta Flight history →	PHL 09:46	DTW 11:31	11%	2%	0.9%	89%
DL 2331 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:36	DTW 14:20	11%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 5480 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 09:00	DTW 10:42	14%	4%	1.3%	85%
DL 1686 Delta Flight history →	PHL 20:10	DTW 22:15	14%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 1391 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:28	DTW 19:15	21%	5%	0.8%	70%
OH 5367 PSA	PHL 17:05	DTW 18:47	22%	6%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON