Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 375 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day B6 375 PHL 06:00 → FLL 08:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest B6 2275 PHL 13:57 → FLL 16:44 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 375 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:47	14%	4%	1.1%	71%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	PHL 07:06	FLL 10:02	17%	4%	1.3%	79%
AA 1465 American	PHL 11:32	FLL 14:22	20%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 4455 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:56	FLL 10:56	22%	6%	1.3%	74%
AA 1864 American Flight history →	PHL 19:20	FLL 22:25	24%	8%	1.2%	69%
AA 2718 American	PHL 13:36	FLL 16:26	24%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 2462 American	PHL 18:27	FLL 21:15	25%	8%	1.3%	no record
F9 4439 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:53	FLL 16:50	29%	11%	1.3%	69%
B6 2275 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 13:57	FLL 16:44	30%	14%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON