tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5341 at 10:31, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5341 PSA PHL 10:31 GRR 12:29 13% 5% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547 6h 28m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 05m Minneapolis MSP 08:25 → GRR 10:53DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 5h 13m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 07m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 50m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210 7h 19m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555 6h 50m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058 5h 12m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25AA 1751 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:53 → GRR 12:24AA 3167 7h 23m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:35 → ORD 11:05UA 1811 1h 53m Chicago ORD 12:58 → GRR 15:13UA 2751 5h 38m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON