tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6235 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record PHL 10:39 IAD 11:55 14% 2% 3.4% 86%
UA 4587 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record PHL 19:45 IAD 21:10 16% 13% 11.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → IAD 13:06DL 8965 7h 51m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135 7h 36m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52UA 2277 5h 52m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 1h 02m Detroit DTW 08:50 → IAD 10:23DL 2884 4h 13m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 3h 37m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 6h 55m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902 6h 28m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309 6h 31m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:39 → CLT 12:21AA 847 3h 49m Charlotte CLT 16:10 → IAD 17:44AA 5447 · flown by PSA 7h 05m 98% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON