Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 584 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 584 PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 889 PHL 19:59 → IAH 22:22 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 584 United Flight history →	PHL 06:15	IAH 08:44	7%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	PHL 13:04	IAH 15:35	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 2474 United Flight history →	PHL 18:15	IAH 20:35	14%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 836 American	PHL 10:43	IAH 13:07	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2486 American	PHL 13:13	IAH 15:57	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 840 American	PHL 08:51	IAH 11:34	18%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 889 American Flight history →	PHL 19:59	IAH 22:22	21%	7%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON