Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4615 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 4615 PHL 08:49 → IND 11:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3015 PHL 16:18 → IND 18:26 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4615 Republic	PHL 08:49	IND 11:17	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 4637 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IND 20:45	10%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:45	IND 12:55	12%	5%	1.1%	86%
OH 5328 PSA	PHL 14:15	IND 16:13	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 3015 American Flight history →	PHL 16:18	IND 18:26	20%	8%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON