Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 2861 PHL 05:58 → JAX 08:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 3214 PHL 16:57 → JAX 19:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2861 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:58	JAX 08:19	11%	6%	1.7%	65%
AA 1791 American Flight history →	PHL 08:51	JAX 11:21	13%	4%	1.2%	81%
OH 5047 PSA	PHL 13:16	JAX 15:33	16%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 1970 American Flight history →	PHL 18:16	JAX 20:33	18%	7%	0.9%	77%
AA 3214 American	PHL 16:57	JAX 19:15	19%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON