Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2280 PHL 09:15 → LAS 11:25 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2381 PHL 15:31 → LAS 17:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2280 American	PHL 09:15	LAS 11:25	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1529 American	PHL 16:56	LAS 19:17	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 3005 American Flight history →	PHL 19:48	LAS 22:07	23%	8%	0.8%	71%
AA 2381 American	PHL 15:31	LAS 17:43	23%	10%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 16m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 35m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 02m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON