Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1035 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1035 PHL 07:05 → LAX 09:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 3123 PHL 17:29 → LAX 20:10 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1035 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	LAX 09:52	11%	3%	0.9%	96%
AA 2408 American Flight history →	PHL 11:00	LAX 13:46	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 2944 American Flight history →	PHL 13:04	LAX 15:46	14%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 824 American Flight history →	PHL 08:26	LAX 11:14	14%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 2225 American	PHL 15:46	LAX 18:27	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2252 American	PHL 19:37	LAX 22:17	23%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 3123 American	PHL 17:29	LAX 20:10	23%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 30m	98%	87%
American Details →	PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05AA 428	1h 52m Phoenix	PHX 10:57 → LAX 12:35AA 2027	8h 30m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	8h 30m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON