Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4654 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 4654 PHL 07:26 → MCO 09:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4173 PHL 15:36 → MCO 18:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4654 Southwest	PHL 07:26	MCO 09:52	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1634 American	PHL 07:17	MCO 09:50	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
F9 2415 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:25	MCO 07:55	15%	4%	1.6%	80%
AA 3268 American Flight history →	PHL 11:00	MCO 13:32	16%	5%	0.8%	78%
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:10	MCO 10:52	17%	7%	2.0%	78%
AA 2084 American Flight history →	PHL 08:45	MCO 11:18	18%	4%	1.2%	78%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	PHL 12:47	MCO 15:18	18%	6%	1.1%	88%
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:14	MCO 12:46	21%	7%	1.3%	70%
AA 2502 American Flight history →	PHL 14:20	MCO 17:08	21%	9%	4.3%	80%
WN 1109 Southwest	PHL 14:36	MCO 17:00	23%	9%	3.1%	no record
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 18:06	MCO 21:01	26%	11%	1.5%	63%
AA 646 American Flight history →	PHL 17:52	MCO 20:24	27%	9%	1.0%	70%
AA 3262 American Flight history →	PHL 16:05	MCO 18:37	28%	10%	3.5%	54%
AA 1673 American Flight history →	PHL 20:05	MCO 22:36	29%	8%	0.9%	53%
F9 4173 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:36	MCO 18:08	30%	12%	5.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON