Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:37	MEM 12:05	16%	4%	0.9%	87%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:08	MEM 21:36	23%	7%	1.1%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	7h 07m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	5h 12m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 10:15 → MEM 11:09AA 1790	6h 09m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	7h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → MEM 09:47DL 1627	4h 37m	94%	86%
American Details →	PHL 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 583	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	8h 34m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	6h 05m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	50m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230	4h 33m	74%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON