Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1252 PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1203 PHL 17:25 → MIA 20:26 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1252 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	MIA 08:56	9%	3%	1.3%	89%
AA 1857 American	PHL 07:02	MIA 09:53	15%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 2184 American Flight history →	PHL 08:15	MIA 11:12	17%	4%	1.8%	91%
F9 4443 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:28	MIA 10:24	20%	6%	1.9%	91%worse than usual
AA 1989 American	PHL 11:26	MIA 14:16	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 3306 American Flight history →	PHL 16:25	MIA 19:27	30%	10%	1.3%	75%
AA 3061 American	PHL 14:48	MIA 17:50	31%	10%	1.4%	no record
AA 2132 American	PHL 19:45	MIA 22:34	32%	10%	1.7%	no record
F9 1203 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:25	MIA 20:26	38%	15%	2.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON