tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4790 Republic PHL 11:24 MSN 12:54 12% 3% 0.7% no record
OH 5335 PSA PHL 16:00 MSN 17:25 21% 9% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681 6h 07m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:30 → BOS 10:58DL 5845 · flown by Republic 2h 10m Boston BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095 3h 27m Chicago ORD 14:05 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 7h 16m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 2h 32m Chicago ORD 11:42 → MSN 12:49AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest 6h 07m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:35 → ORD 11:05UA 1811 1h 54m Chicago ORD 12:59 → MSN 14:01UA 2349 5h 26m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHL 12:40 → ORD 13:59AA 1854 3h 26m Chicago ORD 17:25 → MSN 18:43AA 3953 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25AA 1751 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:39 → MSN 11:14AA 1141 7h 13m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 11:38 → ORD 13:06UA 2207 54m Chicago ORD 14:00 → MSN 15:03UA 1595 4h 25m 72% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON