Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2791 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2791 PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1841 PHL 20:26 → MSP 22:27 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2791 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:40	MSP 07:20	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	PHL 11:36	MSP 13:21	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
OH 5343 PSA	PHL 09:46	MSP 11:38	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 3294 American	PHL 13:12	MSP 15:29	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	PHL 15:38	MSP 17:37	15%	6%	0.7%	82%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	PHL 18:57	MSP 20:53	17%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 1841 American Flight history →	PHL 20:26	MSP 22:27	22%	7%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON