Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4674 PHL 08:46 → MYR 10:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3271 PHL 07:04 → MYR 08:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4674 Republic	PHL 08:46	MYR 10:41	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
PT 5863 Piedmont	PHL 12:57	MYR 14:46	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
PT 5923 Piedmont	PHL 16:21	MYR 18:10	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
F9 3271 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:04	MYR 08:55	12%	4%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON