Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5339 PSA	PHL 11:02	OMA 13:06	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5545 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:07	OMA 20:23	20%	8%	0.9%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	7h 20m	99%	89%
United Details →	PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584	3h 11m Houston	IAH 11:55 → OMA 14:11UA 6188 · flown by Mesa	8h 56m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28DL 2632	5h 13m	94%	87%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27UA 1778	5h 27m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	6h 46m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → OMA 20:54DL 2707	7h 22m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679	48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:25 → OMA 19:47DL 4024 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	75%	65%
United Details →	PHL 13:31 → ORD 14:55UA 2784	52m Chicago	ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28UA 2207	4h 57m	70%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON