Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 660 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 308 PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	8%	3%	1.1%	88%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 09:35	ORD 11:05	12%	5%	1.0%	87%
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	14%	5%	2.3%	82%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 08:58	ORD 10:38	14%	5%	2.4%	81%
AA 2155 American	PHL 21:06	ORD 22:38	17%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 865 American	PHL 10:39	ORD 11:57	17%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	18%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 1854 American Flight history →	PHL 12:40	ORD 13:59	20%	7%	1.6%	79%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:31	ORD 14:55	23%	9%	0.9%	76%
AA 821 American	PHL 14:48	ORD 16:18	24%	9%	1.7%	no record
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	ORD 17:29	25%	11%	1.6%	64%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	PHL 19:11	ORD 20:33	27%	10%	0.7%	55%
AA 2041 American	PHL 18:05	ORD 19:47	27%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 490 American Flight history →	PHL 19:40	ORD 20:59	29%	10%	1.4%	60%
F9 2111 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:53	ORD 13:13	30%	11%	2.9%	60%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	30%	11%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON