Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5017 PHL 11:13 → ORF 12:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5632 PHL 16:38 → ORF 17:48 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5017 PSA	PHL 11:13	ORF 12:23	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:41	ORF 20:51	21%	9%	1.3%	76%
AA 5632 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:38	ORF 17:48	21%	9%	1.3%	72%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:07	ORF 10:29	16%	2%	0.0%	84%
AA 5859 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:48	ORF 15:06	26%	9%	2.8%	74%
AA 6121 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 10:38	ORF 12:00	28%	10%	2.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON