Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1787 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 17:46	PDX 20:37	19%	6%	0.8%	65%
AA 2245 American	PHL 20:09	PDX 23:12	20%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → PDX 10:41DL 2415	8h 01m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 59m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 43m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 54m	99%	86%
United Details →	PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537	3h 59m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337	10h 46m	100%	86%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → PDX 11:24UA 751	8h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 26m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:51DL 691	10h 19m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	49m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 20m	73%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON