Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 428 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 428 PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1984 PHL 17:30 → PHX 19:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 428 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	PHX 09:05	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 478 American Flight history →	PHL 10:48	PHX 12:58	12%	4%	0.6%	93%
AA 2644 American	PHL 09:34	PHX 11:44	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 765 American Flight history →	PHL 13:13	PHX 15:26	16%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 1984 American Flight history →	PHL 17:30	PHX 19:37	22%	8%	0.7%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 46m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 34m	91%	81%
American Details →	PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25AA 1751	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	7h 28m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON