Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5511 at 10:48, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5511 PSA	PHL 10:48	PNS 12:20	20%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	6h 36m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	6h 01m	99%	85%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 10:45 → PNS 11:32AA 2476	6h 32m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021	6h 32m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	5h 55m	96%	84%
United Details →	PHL 13:04 → IAH 15:35UA 2038	2h 37m Houston	IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa	7h 54m	98%	79%
Frontier Details →	PHL 08:10 → MCO 10:52F9 1807	1h 43m Orlando	MCO 12:35 → PNS 13:22F9 4661	6h 12m	92%	76%
American Details →	PHL 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 583	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:04 → PNS 13:03AA 2863	7h 02m	96%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON