Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5608 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day OH 5608 PHL 09:03 → PVD 10:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5636 PHL 17:30 → PVD 18:46 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5608 PSA	PHL 09:03	PVD 10:19	13%	5%	3.0%	no record
OH 5624 PSA	PHL 13:04	PVD 14:20	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 3142 American	PHL 20:31	PVD 21:53	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5135 PSA	PHL 15:35	PVD 16:51	21%	9%	1.5%	no record
OH 5636 PSA	PHL 17:30	PVD 18:46	24%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON