Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 2059 at 07:56 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day F9 2059 PHL 07:56 → RDU 09:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1441 PHL 15:21 → RDU 16:58 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:56	RDU 09:33	12%	6%	1.7%	85%
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:36	RDU 12:12	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
YX 4800 Republic	PHL 17:04	RDU 18:41	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 08:20	RDU 09:56	15%	5%	1.3%	65%
OH 5663 PSA	PHL 12:56	RDU 14:26	19%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 873 American	PHL 20:46	RDU 22:23	23%	8%	0.8%	no record
F9 1517 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 19:17	RDU 20:55	23%	9%	1.5%	79%
AA 1441 American Flight history →	PHL 15:21	RDU 16:58	23%	8%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON