Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 507 at 11:33 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 507 PHL 11:33 → RSW 14:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1577 PHL 08:45 → RSW 11:45 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 507 American	PHL 11:33	RSW 14:44	15%	6%	2.0%	no record
AA 2365 American Flight history →	PHL 09:00	RSW 11:55	18%	5%	2.5%	73%
AA 2439 American Flight history →	PHL 14:22	RSW 17:21	23%	9%	1.9%	68%
F9 2025 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:42	RSW 16:43	25%	11%	2.0%	63%
F9 1577 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:45	RSW 11:45	27%	8%	3.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON