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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1621 American Flight history → PHL 08:39 SAN 11:20 20% 5% 1.2% 90%
AA 3245 American Flight history → PHL 18:01 SAN 20:39 27% 7% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 7h 58m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843 9h 24m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 43m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584 3h 16m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 10h 06m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 3h 22m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 10h 05m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 57m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 7h 17m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:15DL 924 8h 13m 96% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306 46m Miami MIA 20:13 → SAN 22:39AA 3010 9h 14m 56% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON