Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2058 American Flight history →	PHL 17:45	SAT 20:49	22%	10%	0.7%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	7h 09m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	8h 13m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676	5h 28m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:30 → SLC 10:10DL 2023	3h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:32 → SAT 17:25DL 2199	10h 55m	99%	87%
American Details →	PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05AA 428	3h 17m Phoenix	PHX 12:22 → SAT 16:44AA 570	10h 39m	100%	85%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 55m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490	7h 29m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	8h 05m	98%	85%
American Details →	PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25AA 1751	1h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → SAT 10:26AA 2759	6h 25m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546	5h 41m	66%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON