Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2793 PHL 11:04 → SAV 13:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2708 PHL 15:44 → SAV 17:47 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2793 American	PHL 11:04	SAV 13:07	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
OH 5204 PSA	PHL 08:51	SAV 10:49	14%	5%	2.2%	no record
AA 5273 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:00	SAV 22:27	14%	8%	1.6%	78%
AA 2708 American	PHL 15:44	SAV 17:47	17%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON