Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2092 PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 1037 PHL 17:46 → SEA 20:42 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2092 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:05	SEA 10:01	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 2870 American Flight history →	PHL 08:16	SEA 11:17	19%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 1823 American	PHL 19:44	SEA 23:07	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 1898 Alaska	PHL 07:07	SEA 09:52	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 18:58	SEA 21:47	22%	6%	0.7%	66%
AA 1037 American	PHL 17:46	SEA 20:42	23%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 19m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 24m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:30 → SLC 10:10DL 2023	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 19m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON