Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2661 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2661 PHL 06:00 → SFO 08:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3166 PHL 16:48 → SFO 20:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2661 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	SFO 08:58	8%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 2352 United	PHL 09:28	SFO 12:52	16%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1524 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SFO 11:29	19%	9%	1.1%	82%
AA 2045 American Flight history →	PHL 16:30	SFO 19:42	22%	12%	0.7%	64%
UA 1575 United Flight history →	PHL 18:23	SFO 21:33	23%	13%	0.6%	59%
AA 3295 American Flight history →	PHL 15:36	SFO 18:46	23%	13%	0.7%	81%
AA 2506 American	PHL 19:36	SFO 22:43	24%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 3166 American Flight history →	PHL 16:48	SFO 20:04	24%	13%	0.7%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	8h 05m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 52m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 36m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON