Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 614 at 09:43 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 614 PHL 09:43 → SJU 13:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1166 PHL 13:57 → SJU 17:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 614 American	PHL 09:43	SJU 13:56	17%	6%	1.2%	no record
F9 1016 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:26	SJU 10:30	21%	8%	1.6%	67%
B6 1047 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 12:38	SJU 16:30	25%	10%	1.0%	73%
F9 4462 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:03	SJU 23:58	35%	13%	1.4%	52%
F9 1166 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:57	SJU 17:59	36%	12%	1.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON