Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2023 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2023 PHL 07:30 → SLC 10:10 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2630 PHL 19:37 → SLC 22:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2023 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:30	SLC 10:10	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	PHL 18:55	SLC 21:45	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	PHL 19:37	SLC 22:31	25%	7%	1.0%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	56m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	6h 59m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	50m Minneapolis	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	6h 19m	90%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658	6h 40m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON