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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 58m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 37m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 10:49 → SRQ 12:26DL 3104 6h 01m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → SRQ 21:32DL 1057 7h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:19DL 3115 7h 14m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 5h 15m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 40m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 12m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452 6h 14m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 44m Charlotte CLT 19:29 → SRQ 21:25AA 2604 7h 36m 98% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON