Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3341 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3341 PHL 06:26 → STL 07:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3342 PHL 19:41 → STL 21:05 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3341 Southwest	PHL 06:26	STL 07:50	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1739 American Flight history →	PHL 08:53	STL 10:26	12%	4%	0.9%	95%
YX 4599 Republic	PHL 20:12	STL 21:46	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2571 American Flight history →	PHL 15:31	STL 17:04	19%	7%	0.6%	75%
WN 3342 Southwest	PHL 19:41	STL 21:05	21%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON