Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 2537 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day F9 2537 PHL 05:57 → TPA 08:46 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest F9 2269 PHL 18:33 → TPA 21:25 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2537 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:57	TPA 08:46	11%	5%	1.1%	77%
AA 2015 American	PHL 10:35	TPA 13:20	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1981 American	PHL 09:05	TPA 11:51	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 2412 American Flight history →	PHL 12:27	TPA 15:13	18%	7%	1.1%	71%
F9 4807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 09:56	TPA 12:45	22%	7%	1.3%	75%
AA 2572 American	PHL 15:08	TPA 18:06	25%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 2322 American Flight history →	PHL 19:47	TPA 22:30	26%	8%	0.8%	62%
F9 2269 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 18:33	TPA 21:25	30%	10%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON