Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:28	XNA 12:31	13%	5%	1.1%	80%
AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:05	XNA 19:58	18%	7%	1.2%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 07:01 → DFW 09:25AA 583	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → XNA 14:17AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	7h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:35 → XNA 20:31DL 1710	6h 59m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHL 05:01 → DFW 07:25AA 1751	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → XNA 11:05AA 2025	7h 04m	100%	81%
American Details →	PHL 10:39 → CLT 12:21AA 847	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 15:46 → XNA 16:56AA 5233 · flown by PSA	7h 17m	98%	81%
American Details →	PHL 15:38 → DCA 16:44AA 5363 · flown by PSA	3h 13m Washington	DCA 19:57 → XNA 21:51AA 3452 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	100%	79%
American Details →	PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	97%	79%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → XNA 19:36AA 4087 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	97%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON