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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 3h 35m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 10h 26m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 12h 18m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 2h 06m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 9h 11m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:50 → ORD 12:28UA 356 3h 37m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 13h 58m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 11:27 → SEA 14:26AS 637 2h 33m Seattle SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225 9h 11m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 05:59 → SEA 08:59AS 605 3h 12m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434 9h 58m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 09:22 → SEA 12:21AS 603 3h 37m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 10h 15m 97% 72%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 07:20 → SEA 10:29AS 645 2h 52m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 9h 48m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON