Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 918 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 918 PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2391 PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 918 Delta Flight history →	PHX 05:45	ATL 12:28	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 849 Delta	PHX 00:07	ATL 06:43	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 901 Delta Flight history →	PHX 07:15	ATL 14:00	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:14	ATL 17:00	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 4709 Southwest	PHX 09:26	ATL 16:13	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:15	ATL 20:14	12%	4%	0.5%	81%
DL 1333 Delta	PHX 15:19	ATL 22:04	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 883 American	PHX 08:56	ATL 15:44	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 16:11	ATL 22:50	23%	10%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON