Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2887 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2887 PHX 05:06 → AUS 09:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1729 PHX 15:56 → AUS 20:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2887 Southwest	PHX 05:06	AUS 09:26	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2041 Southwest	PHX 07:01	AUS 11:22	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3351 Southwest	PHX 09:34	AUS 13:54	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1059 American	PHX 09:12	AUS 13:38	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	PHX 09:27	AUS 13:53	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3066 Southwest	PHX 17:06	AUS 21:26	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	PHX 13:06	AUS 17:26	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2892 American Flight history →	PHX 15:25	AUS 19:43	22%	8%	0.6%	70%
WN 1729 Southwest	PHX 15:56	AUS 20:15	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON