Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1245 PHX 08:45 → BOS 17:14 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 567 PHX 15:15 → BOS 23:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1245 American	PHX 08:45	BOS 17:14	19%	7%	0.7%	no record
B6 1302 JetBlue Flight history →	PHX 00:00	BOS 07:44	19%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 2778 American Flight history →	PHX 12:47	BOS 21:17	23%	10%	0.7%	74%
AA 567 American Flight history →	PHX 15:15	BOS 23:14	24%	10%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	48m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	6h 44m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	7h 13m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BOS 16:50DL 2558	7h 05m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON