Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1646 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1646 PHX 07:06 → BUR 08:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6185 PHX 16:44 → BUR 18:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1646 Southwest	PHX 07:06	BUR 08:37	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3593 Southwest	PHX 08:17	BUR 09:48	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	PHX 09:57	BUR 11:28	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4227 Envoy	PHX 07:54	BUR 09:24	12%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 3414 Southwest	PHX 13:26	BUR 14:57	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 6246 SkyWest	PHX 14:41	BUR 16:16	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1436 Southwest	PHX 15:26	BUR 16:57	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6185 SkyWest	PHX 16:44	BUR 18:19	22%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON