tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 945 Southwest PHX 05:01 BWI 12:28 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1562 Southwest PHX 13:06 BWI 20:30 26% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 2h 51m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 8h 30m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 17m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 7h 41m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 11:48 → MSP 16:55DL 2208 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 25m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718 1h 33m Dallas DAL 11:17 → BWI 15:29WN 1965 7h 08m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 08m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 1h 24m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 7h 20m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 54m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 6h 17m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHX 01:15 → ORD 06:50AA 1148 3h 03m Chicago ORD 09:53 → BWI 12:52AA 4253 · flown by Envoy 8h 37m 98% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON