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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 4h 17m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 6h 55m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 94% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 5h 25m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHX 06:10 → DFW 10:42AA 1018 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947 8h 06m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:59 → SEA 10:05DL 1570 1h 35m Seattle SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 6h 36m 91% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 05:59 → SEA 08:59AS 605 2h 49m Seattle SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277 7h 25m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 07:00 → SFO 09:12UA 2449 2h 48m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 7h 21m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON