Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 08:50	CID 13:52	14%	2%	0.7%	93%
OO 4935 SkyWest	PHX 12:34	CID 17:45	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	9h 49m	99%	86%
American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:05 → CID 17:10AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	99%	84%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 15m Denver	DEN 10:07 → CID 13:08UA 2742	5h 08m	97%	84%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → CID 20:41AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	8h 10m	98%	82%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	97%	80%
American Details →	PHX 08:30 → CLT 15:48AA 1688	2h 27m Charlotte	CLT 18:15 → CID 19:41AA 3127	9h 11m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	2h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 14:26 → CID 15:38DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	6h 54m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → CID 22:49DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	6h 58m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 13:37 → DEN 16:50UA 709	47m Denver	DEN 17:37 → CID 20:39UA 2324	5h 02m	70%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON