tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 452 American PHX 15:58 CLE 23:06 21% 8% 0.6% no record
WN 4859 Southwest PHX 12:56 CLE 19:46 24% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:21 → DAL 09:44WN 1718 2h 57m Dallas DAL 12:41 → CLE 16:21WN 4885 8h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 48m Minneapolis MSP 15:38 → CLE 18:35DL 1118 8h 50m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318 3h 43m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 9h 20m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 35m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 48m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 5h 36m 94% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 1h 55m Denver DEN 13:55 → CLE 18:53UA 2476 6h 45m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 14:08 → CLE 15:49AA 1244 7h 49m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 6h 38m 94% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 11:12 → ORD 16:54UA 1748 51m Chicago ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13UA 2652 6h 01m 68% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON