Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3009 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 3009 PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1591 PHX 13:55 → CLT 21:08 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3009 American Flight history →	PHX 05:00	CLT 12:09	7%	2%	0.7%	95%
AA 871 American	PHX 06:29	CLT 13:52	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1688 American Flight history →	PHX 08:30	CLT 15:48	13%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 1617 American	PHX 12:19	CLT 19:42	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 665 American	PHX 10:04	CLT 17:24	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1591 American	PHX 13:55	CLT 21:08	17%	5%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 07:15 → ATL 14:00DL 901	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	6h 02m	92%	78%
American Details →	PHX 08:46 → OKC 13:03AA 6253 · flown by SkyWest	55m Oklahoma City	OKC 13:58 → CLT 17:41AA 1626	5h 55m	87%	73%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	6h 11m	77%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON